Butter Pecan Mafia - PARTICIPATION

[BlueWizrobe]

It is only 8 votes he needs right?
My vote goes to Corbin.

[Argumentable]

I change my vote to limepie20

[limepie20]

You're such a clown, Argumentable.

[Argumentable]

limepie20 for mayor. He has my vote

[Dan]

OK enough
It is now night. Corbin, the cultist, has been lynched.

[Dan]

Guten Morgen! Aposke, the watcher, was killed last night. 13 remain, 7 votes to lynch.

[O-Card]

may I mention

the nurse is the worst role that can exist, ever

[limepie20]

Well, uh. Dashta I guess all we've got is you.

[Cobalt]

GJ DOC
Actually he was probably culted oh well
ps this means we can't determine yono's sanity after all because corbin could have been culted n1 or n2
if it was n1 he would have been insane
if it was n2 he would have been sane

[O-Card]

e: by the love of god cobalt there is no doc get this through your head

also, taking possible shrinkings out of the equation, the setup looks somewhat like this now

3 mafia
4 cult
6 town

this means that if we lynch a townie now, and cult manages to convert someone tomorrow, cult wins and we're fucked. if we kill a mafia, we'll have one extra day to go over this, if cult is able to convert.

in any case, if you know FOR SURE who the mafia is, you better goddamn tell us

(don't know if there's even a way to tell who's cult)

(oh, if the survivor somehow knows, rat them out now)

[ultratowel112]

My thoughts from the previous days:

Not really anything d1.

d2: Really? Another cop shows up whose report makes him a very likely insane cop (if he is real), and you vote the other (very likely sane) cop's inno? At least you were lucky and it was cult. We could argue the possibilities of what Cobalt said (about Yono being insane and Corbin being culted n1), but 2 people being on the same person (cop and cult) is pretty unlikely.

Numbers:
At the most, cult has 4 members right now (2 original + 3 night conversions - 1 death). This is assuming none of the cultings were blocked by shrink/enforcer.

Cult might have 4, maf might have 3 (if not converted). If both of these numbers are true (cult 4 and maf 3), they could joint and win. Hopefully, they either aren't true or maf/cult don't want to risk telling each other (through daytime chat) that they are true.

I'm going to vote for the first person who voted for Corbin after dashta outed. This person is... *goes to look*... Cobalt. Shoot, he's inno by dashta's report. Next person is... OC. This is just temporary in case I have to do something for the two hours the days last.

[O-Card]

oh come on, it's not like anyone will miss corbin, the guy was kind of a douche

we still need the cop's report anyways, so don't be too hasty on jumping on me when I was just taking a chance (I also completely forgot yono said innocent on corbin, OH WELL)

[ultratowel112]

oh come on, it's not like anyone will miss corbin, the guy was kind of a douche

we still need the cop's report anyways, so don't be too hasty on jumping on me when I was just taking a chance (I also completely forgot yono said innocent on corbin, OH WELL)

Good points, but a bad clear is statistically better than no clear (maybe not in reality) (and I know Corbin wasn't technically clear, but a cop CC hasn't come up yet and dashta is statistically insane). However, I'm going to keep this vote for now (just for the hell of it). If people start jumping on it, I'll go off until we get dashta's report.

More numbers:
We have 13 people at the moment, with at most 4 cult and 7 votes to lynch. That means if we ML, tomorrow will probably be 11 people, at most 5 cult, and 6 to lynch. Basically, I'm saying we can afford to ML.

(thinking out loud) Let's say we get CL with our ML, then we would be at 9 people and at most 3 maf. Tomorrow would be 8 people (assuming nurse doesn't stop the maf kill), at most 3 maf, 5 to lynch. We can still afford to lynch the CL without maf auto-winning (with maximum [3] members).

[Cup]

Limepie can you tell us why you're so suspicious of dashta? He seems to very clearly be the insane cop. ultratowel's logic behind finding suspicious behavior is good, but you seem to be making a lot less sense than OC is.

[BTYM]

By the way, there's still a lawyer, so it's completely possible that Corbin started out mafia. If he started on town or cult, it's likely that either Argumentable or Cobalt is mafia.

e: Actually, the lawyer might have been culted, but the cult probably tried to cult Aposke N2 or dashta N3

[limepie20]

Limepie can you tell us why you're so suspicious of dashta? He seems to very clearly be the insane cop. ultratowel's logic behind finding suspicious behavior is good, but you seem to be making a lot less sense than OC is.

Oh sorry, I suppose my post was unclear.

What I meant by all we got is you is you're our only lead. Because he's the only cop we have. I mean he could be fake but whatever we still need to know his report.

[Cup]

Ah, that does clear it up. And yes without you pointing your finger at dashta, I really have no one to be suspicious of unless we get dashta's report. Your votes yesterday still made little sense though, so like ut with oc, my tentative vote goes your way.

And Alex I wasn't defending corbin. Voting Corbin was a senseless act for reasons ultratowel outlined very clearly. You and everyone who voted for him just happened to get very lucky that he was cult. The odds were very low and probability said you were lynching a town. Why did you vote for him in the first place?

[O-Card]

ugh, fine, ok, it was an unnecessary risk, and bandwagons are powerful things, sorry for bringing up the idea of lynching him

seemed like a damn good idea at the time, and even then, we still got something done, so it worked out

so can it with the suspicions until we get dashta here

[Cobalt]

What i thought boko said he made doc and nurse oh well

also wait for dashta yeah

[dashta]

…Well I feel all self conscious now.
In a characteristically bad move, I picked BTYM to watch, and he came up mafia, though with my insanity taken into account, he is most likely an innocent, or at worst a cultist.
Do with this as you will. Not that useful, but still.

[limepie20]

Alright, well then I wouldn't feel bad lynching someone who isn't part of the reports or dashta.

[O-Card]

so, if dashta really is our cop guy, the clears (of mafia alignment) are thus

dashta
cobalt
argue
BTYM

leaving you to choose among these possible lynchees, who can be anything

alex
bluewizrobe
cup
freelop
jesuiscontent
kilon
limepie
towel
and me

don't see it as strange if someone votes to lynch a clear, since they may very well be cult

as for myself, since we don't really have any leads, I'm gonna go with someone who is apparently afraid of talking

vote kilon

e: hold on, are we totally sure that dashta is indeed a cop? I just checked the numbers and there's a possible 4 cult, as well as 4 clears, BY the "cop". maybe we should take this into consideration

[dashta]

Dangit O-Card, you posted that nice list mere seconds before I was about to post mine.
Ah well, I guess I can just give my final points:

Cup, Limepie, and OC seem inno to me, if just for the effort they are putting forth on the side of the town, though it could be a sham.

If we were to go with a mafia suspect, I might be thinking Alex, though I am most likely completely wrong here.

But if we wanted to choose a non-issue and see what happens, I suggest either Kilon or BlueWizrobe, as their lack of participation means even if they are town, it will only matter a little bit, and there might be a good chance of cult status.

[ultratowel112]

so, if dashta really is our cop guy, the clears (of mafia alignment) are thus

dashta
cobalt
argue
BTYM

Except for the lawyer. Don't forget about that lawyer. Also, as you implied, any of those people could be a cult member, or even the leader.

Since we can ML, it might actually be best to lynch one of the "no talking non-reported" people. So I will take my vote of OC, but I won't put it on anyone else yet. I'll wait until one of kilon or BlueWizrobe says something so that I can decide.

fake e: Then again, it is possible that they aren't saying anything because they are an important role.

[kilon]

I wasn't talking because I have nothing interesting to say. I'm just a regular old villager doing his daily work without bothering to much about the rest of the village or crazy rumours about a so called cult or mafia.
You can lynch me, but you'll lose another towny is all I'm saying.

I don't see much evidence towards anyone being mafia or cult, so I don't know who to lynch either.