My thoughts about things:
N1 events: Paralars quitting sucks. Janning n1 is very common in EpicMafia, so much so that the lack of a n1 jan makes people think that either:
- The janitor is stupid and chose the wrong target (too likely in EM, not likely here)
- A bodyguard died in place of the target (impossible in this setup)
- The janitor was selected by the drunk (about a 1/22 chance, since Paralars was still in the game last night and not counting the drunk)
This does 2 things that help the mafia:
- It opens up something for them to claim
- It means that the town cannot trust uncc'd claims (such as tracker)
D1 possibilities: Even a visit from the tracker doesn't mean anything because there are so many town-sided roles that could visit Bartle (all 4 cops, the drunk, and the oracle if it doesn't have the same mechanics as EM). This means that someone visiting Bartle actually has a statistically higher chance of being town than being maf, at least the way past forum mafia games have worked (only 1 mafia is sent to kill, 1 stalks, one seduces, and maybe the janitor also visits if maf didn't send the janitor as their killer).
Cop thoughts: cops should not claim until they can
at least confirm that they are neither paranoid nor naive (this means a guilty and an innocent). We can try to sanity test from there, but miller might throw it off. If the lynch is going for one of the cops (on a later day), that person should out all of their reports up to that point
Amnesiac thoughts: We can't rely on these guys for anything at any point in the game. In EM, amnesiacs usually choose to stay amnesiacs until it becomes clear that one side has a much better chance of winning than the other. This may be either choosing mafia in an otherwise lylo situation (granting the mafia and amnesiac an automatic win) or when town outnumbers the mafia by such a large amount that a massclaim would lead to autowin. Their scumhunting might either be them trying to lynch a mafia or trying to avoid a mafia, depending on which way they are thinking about going in the mid/late game.
Drunk thoughts: going off of my thoughts from "D1 possibilities", I am thinking that drunk should stay away from drunking people for a while. It is more likely that the drunk will choose a town power role than one of the 3 or 4 mafia visitors (again, depending on whether the janitor is sent to kill/jan or just to jan should mafia want to do that a second time).
Tracker thoughts: as I have already said, don't out a Bartle visit today. If you catch that person visiting the night kill again, then it is up to you whether or not you out it (super low chance that it was a town PR, though).
Questions for Argu:
- Does oracle reveal the true identity of someone (miller, traitor, cop sanity), or just how they appear when dead?
- Does traitor appear as a villager or a mafia when dead?
- Does traitor know that s/he is a traitor, or is it like miller?
Overall, my opinion is that we should actually lynch nobody today. There is a higher chance of hitting a town PR (10 people, 9 if one was janned) than a mafia (5 people, 6 if you count traitor). Amnesiacs weren't included in the odds because they might choose town. Even if you want them dead, that is at most 8 non-town (traitor or amnesiac could be janned) and a minimum of 9 town PRs - still a higher chance of hitting a PR. Right now, a spreadsheet isn't necessary, unless someone wants to set one up to get ready for a later day and put it on a google doc or something.
If you don't know any of the acronyms used in this post, you
suck can read the
EpicMafia wiki