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Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Argumentable »

The night lasted long
The night was real boring
A body lays in the street
It belongs to anomaly

This is also the last day/night for people who didn't post/actually send me night actions to do so or else I'll kill and ban you.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Falky »

Well, both jans are effectively nillas now, that's something.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by ano0maly »

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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by ultratowel112 »

Time for some more situations! I'll present them in the "worst to best" order (imo).

Situation 1: a cop and the tracker are janned. This is bad for obvious reasons, but I'll spell it out anyway. We would have lost our most important role (tracker) and a possibly helpful cop. In this situation, it would be good for any cop with conflicting reports (2 one way, 1 another) to come out. Chances are good that the report that you have two of tells your sanity - two innos for regular cop, two guilties for insane. It doesn't guarantee it, but those are stats for you.

Situation 2: a cop and a doctor are janned. You may think that tracker+doc would be worse, but let me explain. With this situation, tracker will only be able to help us nab one mafia before biting the dust. We might still be able to prosper with the conflicting reports method I described in situation 1.

Situation 3: tracker and doctor are janned. Pretty bad, but we still have 3 cops who can sort out the mess. Chances are about average that we still have both of our useful cops, too.

Situation 4: two cops are janned. At least tracker and doctor are still alive. If we suspect this situation, the tracker should out some visits (especially visits on people who died that night). Stalker/hooker are the two maf PR's we should definitely be looking for, so living visits are also useful. It goes without saying that a double-visit should definitely be outed, since only those maf PR's can do that.

Situation 5: tracker and non-reporting town role that isn't doctor. We lost our tracker, but at least we have 3 cops and a doctor. A cop claim would be very handy in this situation.

Situation 6: cop and non-reporting town role that isn't doctor. We still have 2 cops, tracker, and doctor. This is actually a pretty good situation for us.

Situation 7: doctor and non-reporting town role. 3 cops and tracker remain. We definitely have a useful cop in this situation, so a conflicting reports cop should claim.

Situation 8: two non-visiting town roles. The best two-townies-janned situation that we can have. We still have 3 cops, tracker, and doctor. Getting that hooker out of the way will be great so that tracker can get reports (or even stay alive, if stalker knows the doctor).

Situation 9: amnesiac and town role. That's one less potential killing maf member in the late game, but it is also one less person who could have taken a cop or tracker if he dies.

Situation 10: traitor and town role. This definitely decreases the amount of mafia-sided votes, which is always a plus. Today wouldn't be a kind of LYLO in this situation (or situation 11).

Situation 11: traitor and amnesiac. This effectively lowers the maximum amount of mafia votes by 2. We would actually have another ML today.

Looking at the amount of people left, we are, in the worse scenarios, at a 9v8 situation. However, a mafia needs to die for the 8 to actually be real. Despite what I said earlier, the hooker dying today would be really bad. This would make it 8v7 tomorrow (assuming maf kill a townie and not the second amnesiac or traitor) and the mafia could have two hookers (both amnesiacs take hooker). We would have to lynch right every day for 6-7 days while the maf takes out our supporting roles. I'm actually thinking that lynching limepie might be a good idea. Sure, he might have taken a town role last night, but it limits the second amnesiacs ability to take a mafia.

No lynching is not an option. If we do that, maf could potentially win by just killing one of us, sacrificing one of their own in the lynch tomorrow, and killing another one of us the next night. Amnesiacs would both take the sacrificed mafia, and we would be at a 7v7. We have to lynch a mafia/amnesiac today.

The best course of action, in my opinion, would be to give some time for conflicting-report cops to claim and present evidence, then give some time for tracker to claim (with reports) if no cops step-up. The gunman should not shoot right now because shooting wrong puts us in a potential autoloss situation. However, if tracker says that the gunman visited someone during the night and he knows it isn't true, then a shot is warranted.

These are just my thoughts right now. I reserve the right to change them as evidence comes up/people post.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by TheVulpineHero1 »

All I can really add to that is that miller might still be alive at this point, which our cops should bear in mind. That was a pretty exhaustive look at the situations we could be in.

Right now, the biggest surprise is that maf didn't target sturgyman or Lime. Considering one has claimed cop and the other was an amnesiac (with a cop already in the grave, thus potential cop), I don't really get their logic when it comes to targeting. Maybe they just think tracker or doc is a bigger priority, or were going elsewhere to avoid the doc? I just hope neither have been janned at this point.

Cops should have a decent idea of who's who at the moment. I know that if sturgy gets inno on lime he still doesn't know if he's sane or naive. Since anomaly got killed, we know he was either innocent or would have appeared innocent (if he was the traitor), so we can rule out insane, and obviously he can't be paranoid. (I think he probably is a cop at this point, rather than fakeclaiming. Although, that might be why he survived the night? It'd be kind've dumb for maf to do that since it would point to him being mafia straight away, but we'd still have to waste our lynch or our gunman on him so it would be a net gain for them.) I'm just worried because if we were unlucky and a cop got janned at some point, we could conceivably be left with only the two useless ones at this point. Tracker might be our best bet, if they're not dead already. We're in a tricky position here, so I guess there isn't much we can do but put our faith in the cops and the tracker, and do our best with the information we get.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Cup »

Janitors are like the worst role. I have no idea who anyone is still and it's been a few nights. They might work better in epic mafia, but it makes forums games far too slow. Since I think Wareng is smart enough to realize how much of a wrench janning the first series of hits can cause for the town, he's earned my FOS and vote for the time being.

While everyone gets caught up though, Aposke, do you have an updated spreadsheet? This game is difficult to keep track of.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Sturg »

Night 3: Investigate Limepie, got innocent.

So I still do not have a good idea of who I am...

...unless you want to believe I'm fake-claiming, then go right ahead.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by pholtos »

This is a tough situation if I'm following along correctly.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by ultratowel112 »

About the spreadsheet: can that be made so that anyone can edit it? Incorrect/improper activity will be very suspicious. We can mark our edits with a color.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Aposke »

ultratowel112 wrote:About the spreadsheet: can that be made so that anyone can edit it? Incorrect/improper activity will be very suspicious. We can mark our edits with a color.
I don't know, man, I don't want mafia to be able to edit it, really.
Then again, I could be mafia, so what the heck. I opened it to free editing, but don't put things there that aren't 100% clear (a.k.a. your FoSes or some shit).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... sp=sharing

Also, my two cents for what I think happened last night:

Stalker got a report N2 that ano0maly was a cop. Mafia kills him and jans him so that the amnesiacs wouldn't pick a town PR to resurrect.
It wouldn't make sense for Mafia to randomly waste their second janitor on a role they don't know, so whoever anomaly is, him being janned is almost certainly a sign of him being a power role (this is also why they didn't lynch limepie or sturgy last night, especially since sturgy is most likely a useless cop anyways).
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by ultratowel112 »

Why is sturgy only listed under naive cop? It is possible that he is regular cop and just visited 3 town roles. Also, he could not be a cop, but there isn't a place for that on the spreadsheet. I'm going to start a second table in row 30 that is similar to the first table, but it will go by name instead of role. If we collectively deem this unnecessary, I'll just keep track of it in a private table.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Aposke »

ultratowel112 wrote:Why is sturgy only listed under naive cop? It is possible that he is regular cop and just visited 3 town roles.
Because the part he's listed under is called "suspected player", and since the top part of the spreadsheet goes by role, the focus is on who is most likely that role, and with three innocent reports, it's sturgy.
ultratowel112 wrote:Also, he could not be a cop, but there isn't a place for that on the spreadsheet. I'm going to start a second table in row 30 that is similar to the first table, but it will go by name instead of role. If we collectively deem this unnecessary, I'll just keep track of it in a private table.
I approve of that idea, because the top part of the spreadsheet can't adequately portray the current game situation alone.

That said, I personally believe that sturgy is who he claimed to be (for reasons listed above). I really really really want a cop with conflicting reports (1 inno and 2 guilties or something similar) to out, so we can sanity-test, because we /need/ leads right now, otherwise this game will die a slow and painful death simply because town doesn't know what to do and is in quite a pinch right now.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Jesuiscontent »

Yeah come on guys. I hope the one million people that barely said anything yet got some info to share.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Falky »

Hmm. Why sturgy wasn't hooked seems a fairly important question. The way I see it, there are four possibilities there.
1) Sturgy is naive, stalker knows this, so mafia are trying to hit a more useful role
2) Drunk was on hooker
3) Sturgy is maf
4) Mafia are silly
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Aposke »

Falky wrote:Hmm. Why sturgy wasn't hooked seems a fairly important question. The way I see it, there are four possibilities there.
1) Sturgy is naive, stalker knows this, so mafia are trying to hit a more useful role
2) Drunk was on hooker
3) Sturgy is maf
4) Mafia are silly
5) Sturgy is so obviously naive that mafia doesn't want to waste their time on him. Stalker got a N2 report on an0omaly who is a more useful role (tracker, doc, cop, drunk) and mafia decided to go for killing him.

I think that's the most likely explanation as it fits with everything that's happened so far. I'd strongly advise limepie to amn an0omaly next night after our lynching, but the current problem is we don't know /who/ to lynch, and since there's no cops outing, I suppose we might have to assume we're in the worst situation we could be in - our two useful cops are dead and the tracker doesn't have any useful reports, so he doesn't out.
If this keeps going, town will have to RL today, because, as towel already said, we're pretty likely to be close to a factual lylo, even if only one of the amns decides to side with the mafia.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Falky »

That's a possibility too. However, even that may give us something. How would they know he was naive? Yesterday, he had inno on anomaly and Cup. anomaly's dead now, leaving Cup. Mafia would know sturgy was naive in this case if anomaly is town and Cup is mafia, perhaps killing anomaly to try and clear Cup somewhat. That's not necessarily what I think, just another possible avenue.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Dan »

@Turgid Stan: Why investigate limepie? That doesn't really tell us anything since he's amnesiac. He could have easily picked up a miller or traitor or whoever the mafia has janned right? Unless I'm totally misunderstanding how amnesiac works. Argue, what happens first: investigations or amn conversions?

So this is getting a little ridiculous. We know nothing concrete except that limepie is amnesiac, nabe WAS a cop, and every maf is alive (unless one of the janned roles was traitor, and even so, an amn could have picked it up). Also, there will presumably be a holocaust of players at the end of the day unless the people Argue was talking about show up, which could either be good or bad. In the end, though, town's in a very precarious position right now. I'm going to reread the game and tell you guys what's what.
Agent Emerald - Kind of indicated that he didn't have a power role ("I'm always stuck useless roles") but that could have meant it was one of the worthless cops. He wouldn't know that though. I'm going with villager or wildcard option: very timid mafia

Aposke - Amnesiac. Very lynch-happy this game, presumably in the hopes of taking a good role (or a mafia role)

BTYM - Hunter? or a very bad mafia. Isn't drawing attention to himself but is also making himself look incredibly scummy by doing nothing other than BWing (which could be a ploy to get himself lynched, hence hunter)

Cirnya - a villager/hunter/traitor/gunman, with odds tending toward the first option. He has literally said nothing this entire game and I feel like Argue would be on his case/have killed him by now if he were important.

Cup - Villager or other non-PR, see above. Uncharacteristically inactive this game.

dashta - Cop? Dashta is usually more insightful and active than he has been this game. This also slightly leads me to believe he might be doc?

Falky - Falky is the traitor. He has contributed very little except for cautioning against random lynches (yes I know I did this too. I was the one being lynched and I, unlike him, am an important person and lynching me would have been a mistake) and his posts usually have a bit more substance than they do this game.

JesuisContent - Cop? something about his "everyone give their reports NOW" seemed like a softclaim or a prelude to a hardclaim. Possibly testing the waters to see whether he should claim or not

Limepie20 - Are you the oracle now or what? Just a reminder to the gunman or whomever: if limepie is the oracle don't kill him today because he won't have had time to pick anyone

Lukaramu - Hell man I don't know he never posts. I want to say this one's mafia too.

"O'Lagrill" - Another one who doesn't post. Also I hate to metagame (and I don't know if this is cheating or not) but in the irc he casually mentioned that he was afraid he would be killed due to inactivity, which leads me to believe that he doesn't have a night action. Villager

Pholtos - Gunman. It's always the quiet ones. Seriously though I don't have much to go off of so a lot of these are just deductive guesses.

Sturgyman - Naive cop I guess

ultratowel112 - Hoo boy. This is UT's epicmafia profile. He basically runs the show over there from what I'm told, and really, to my untrained eye, he is inscrutable. Just from his forward behavior I'm going to assume he has a power role. Either mafia (stalker?) or town, in which case he is most likely doc. He's skilled enough to be able to pull off a very aggressive doc, but honestly I'm more leaning toward mafia.

Validon98 - Not mafia

TheVulpineHero1 - He is probably mafia. Either that or villager (which could also be traitor)

Anomaly - Probably not the doc or even a power role. Maybe it was just anomaly being anomaly, but he attracted way too much attention to himself to be an important player. Let's say drunk or hunter.

Bartle - I really have nothing to say about this one. I just hope he wasn't the doc. He very well might have been so for now that's my guess.
I'm aware I've left out roles, repeated roles, put in too many of several roles or not enough of several roles, etc. These are rough guesses for the most part, and intentionally left rough for fear of actually getting the doc correct and giving them away somehow. Anything I've put in bold, however, is something of which I'm fairly certain for one reason or another.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Falky »

That doesn't seem too bad a guess for the most part, Wareng, but I can categorically state that at least two of the things you're "fairly certain" about are wrong. Also turns out I was wrong with what I thought you were softclaiming d1, but not to worry.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Dan »

I'm assuming those two things are your role and the role of the person you're going to claim to have tracked?
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Falky »

Nah, I'm not tracker. I'd have probably outed before now if I was and had something.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by ultratowel112 »

It looks to me like you two (Falky and Wareng) are both very hard soft-claiming PRs. Instead of just being targets for maf, why don't you share with us? You're doing us no good by hiding your reports. Unless, of course, you are just millagers and you are drawing the attention away from the real PRs...
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Dan »

e: ^^^ well excuse me for being 2 minutes slow

Fuck me, that would've been so cool. Either way since there's no point in concealing it anymore and since no one is doing anything I'm tracker

The doc's probably still alive. Most of the doc guesses in that post were just made up, to be honest. Since I am obviously of greater importance than our billion cops he should be on me tonight.

These are my reports:
Night 1 tracked Cup. He visited nobody, which is why I think he's a non-PR
Night 2, as luck would have it, Nabe visited Falky. Sucks that he's dead although he probably wouldn't have been any help
Night 3 I got no report. I'm guessing this means I was hooked or drunked
Falky's still traitor, unless he has something conclusive that will change my mind. The other option is Alex, who I don't think would have sui'd if he were an even remotely important role, but it's Alex, so who knows.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by Falky »

I have no reports to hide.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by pholtos »

I have nothing to hide as well, if that helps. Your guess about me is also incorrect wareng, if that helps as well.
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Re: Mystery Meat Mafia - Participation

Post by ultratowel112 »

Let's not give the maf too much info, Pholtos - keep quiet unless it is important that you soft-claim anything (even visit/no-visit). Does anybody cc tracker? We can give this a little bit of time, in case people are asleep/working.
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