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Mafia Game 2 - Game Ended - Post Discussion

...or in other words: post-whoring
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Voltgloss » 1 year ago

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Vote: Holy
Participate.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Ignoritus » 1 year ago

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Vote: No Lynch
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Voltgloss » 1 year ago

No lynch just hands the initiative over to the mafia. Running up a lynch today might kill mafia, and either will give us information to parse tomorrow. This isn't a game where we can sit back and wait for power roles to find mafia for us. Hell, one of our power roles is already dead.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Ignoritus » 1 year ago

statistically speaking we are far more likely to fuck ourselves over by lynching at complete random than we are the mafia.

exactly what info do we get out of "oh fuck we lynched one of our own oops"?
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby pholtos » 1 year ago

flighty is right, volt. You're being oddly pushy. But at the same time you do have some correct points, and also the fact that Holy hasn't posted really is a tad odd.

It's also true what igno said, that if we random lynch we're in danger of simply weakening ourselves, especially after losing a power role.

Just posting my thoughts on all that's happened so far, still unsure where to go at this point.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Voltgloss » 1 year ago

8flight wrote:
Ignoritus wrote: statistically speaking we are far more likely to fuck ourselves over by lynching at complete random than we are the mafia.

exactly what info do we get out of "oh fuck we lynched one of our own oops"?
People who try to lynch at random are usually mafia, and considering that voltglass has played the game before, I doubt that he's a townie pushing for a lynch and considering how he's been urging us to vote and has voted 2 different people I vote

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Voltglass
I'm not advocating a random lynch. I'm advocating a lynch of someone who is suspicious.

Even if a lynch hits town - which hopefully it won't, but obviously it can - that gives us information next day we can use to try to find mafia. Who voted for the lynch. Who didn't. What was the timing of the votes. What did people say about the vote options. What didn't they say.

If the town does not lynch, how do you propose we find mafia? Sit around and twiddle our thumbs hoping a cop or tracker hits the jackpot? That's statistically LESS likely to find mafia then is lynching.
pholtos wrote: flighty is right, volt. You're being oddly pushy. But at the same time you do have some correct points, and also the fact that Holy hasn't posted really is a tad odd.

It's also true what igno said, that if we random lynch we're in danger of simply weakening ourselves, especially after losing a power role.
I am being pushy, because town is sitting around doing nothing otherwise. We're down a power role out of the gate. We need to act.
If my being pushy gets the town active and talking, that's a good thing.

Still voting Holy.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby bbbrrr_it_cold » 1 year ago

From the initial (sign-up) thread:
Tain wrote: If the day reaches deadline without a majority, there will be no lynch.
Just to be clear, we need a proper majority to lynch, correct? As in five of the nine of us need to agree?
Somehow I don't see that happening. No offense to Voltgloss, but people don't seem to be on the side of lynching right now unless you convince them of your arguments against those people. And people certainly don't seem convinced that we need to lynch today. On the other hand, however, are five of us going to agree that Volt's tactics are more than overzealous and, instead, outright sinister? I doubt that too, even if the more Volt pushes the more I believe it.

For what it's worth, let's look at the worst case scenario:
If we lynch incorrectly until we lose, that puts us at losing at Day 3.
TS|TV|TV|TV|TV|TV|TV|TS|MS|MG
N1|D1|N2|D2|N3|D3|N4

If we don't lynch today but still lynch incorrectly Day 2 and Day 3...we'd lose Day 4.
TS|TV|TV|TV|TV|TV|TV|TS|MS|MG
N1|N2|D2|N3|D3|N4|D4

However, we'd basically lose Day 3 because we'd end up with 5 remaining after that lynch and thus 4 people on Day 4 and, as such, a majority couldn't possibly lynch a mafia. This is assuming we lynch incorrectly each time (and also assuming we lynch day 2 and 3). I suppose it is also assuming my math is right.

So, no, we don't need to lynch today. We're down a power role, sure, but this discussion by itself is giving us plenty of reasons to be suspicious of each other (wow, that's a terrible thing to say). If we lynch badly, we're one step closer to losing. If we lynch tomorrow, we'll have more info and hopefully avoid lynching incorrectly.
On the other hand, not lynching today doesn't actually slow down the mafia unless we assure that we lynch correctly at least once (or don't lynch tomorrow as well).

Still not voting. I'm not going to put us closer to the majority in either direction, especially if we can get some good discussion out of this. And...yeah, it would be nice to hear from Holy. Though, you know Volt, if you're going to vote for someone the least you could do is ping that person.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Voltgloss » 1 year ago

Your math is wrong brrr.

Not lynching today is just as bad as lynching town today. Worse, in that we get no useful information from voting patterns. And by making the number of players even, we make it harder for town to reach a majority consensus to lynch - and easier for mafia to break that consensus.

Here's why:
- Right now there are 7 town and 2 mafia alive. It takes 5 votes to lynch.
- Say we mislynch today. Mafia kills town at night. Day 2 starts with 5 town and 2 mafia alive. It takes 4 votes to lynch.
- Say we mislynch again. Mafia kills town at night. Day 3 starts with 3 town and 2 mafia alive. It takes 3 votes to lynch. Last chance for town to lynch mafia.
So with lynching today, our worst-case scenario "last chance" to lynch mafia is Day 3.

What if we no-lynch today?
- Mafia kills town at night. Day 2 starts with 6 town and 2 mafia alive. It takes 5 votes to lynch.
- Say we mislynch Day 2. Mafia kills town at night. Day 3 starts with 4 town and 2 mafia alive. It takes 4 votes to lynch. Last chance for town to lynch mafia.
Either way, our last chance remains Day 3. Why? Because with no-lynch today, we are left with an even number of players. If we no-lynch today and mislynch Days 2 and 3, then after the Night 3 kill, Day 4 starts with 2 town and 2 mafia alive. Town has lost.

The only time no-lynching benefits town is if there are multiple strong town power roles who can turn the tide with their night actions. That is decidedly not the case here.

brrr's depiction is wrong because when he says "we lose Day 3" in the lynch-today scenario, what actually is happening is that "we lose at the end of Day 3 if we mislynch." And when he says "we lose Day 4" in the no-lynch-today scenario, what actually is happening is that "we lose at the beginning of Day 4, if we mislynched Day 3." Those are the same thing!

I repeat: no-lynching today is just as bad as, if not worse than, a mislynch of town.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby pholtos » 1 year ago

Mmm... I'll probably make a decision in some direction if Holy ever posts. :P
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby bbbrrr_it_cold » 1 year ago

Thank you Volt for both reading my post and not reading my post. The person who is currently in my room with me can attest to the amount of swearing I just did.
Voltgloss wrote: Either way, our last chance remains Day 3.
[sic.]
I repeat: no-lynching today is just as bad as, if not worse than, a mislynch of town.
bbbrrr_it_cold wrote: However, we'd basically lose Day 3 because we'd end up with 5 remaining after that lynch and thus 4 people on Day 4 and, as such, a majority couldn't possibly lynch a mafia. This is assuming we lynch incorrectly each time (and also assuming we lynch day 2 and 3). I suppose it is also assuming my math is right.

So, no, we don't need to lynch today. We're down a power role, sure, but this discussion by itself is giving us plenty of reasons to be suspicious of each other (wow, that's a terrible thing to say). If we lynch badly, we're one step closer to losing. If we lynch tomorrow, we'll have more info and hopefully avoid lynching incorrectly.
On the other hand, not lynching today doesn't actually slow down the mafia unless we assure that we lynch correctly at least once (or don't lynch tomorrow as well).
I would type a lot more, but you've just shown me that you wouldn't read it. Like, seriously. Go back and read the part where I say both (worst case) scenarios lead to us losing on day three (even if one technically plays out longer) and then tell me again that I said we'd lose on day four.
Tell me again how apparently the only useful info can be gleaned from voting patterns.
Tell me again how the only time no lynching helps is when there are multiple power roles, despite the fact that voting no lynch for two days literally gives you an extra day (regardless of whether that is a good plan).

I mean, sure, mislynching does mean that the vote total needed to lynch is lower. Yes, that's a great compensation for the lost person, for being one step closer to losing. Perfect, even.

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 Vote: Voltgloss 
When I calm down a bit (and when Holy responds), I'll probably change this.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Ignoritus » 1 year ago

Voltgloss wrote: I'm not advocating a random lynch. I'm advocating a lynch of someone who is suspicious.
absolutely no one is suspicious at the moment.

Voltgloss wrote: Even if a lynch hits town - which hopefully it won't, but obviously it can - that gives us information next day we can use to try to find mafia. Who voted for the lynch. Who didn't. What was the timing of the votes. What did people say about the vote options. What didn't they say.

If the town does not lynch, how do you propose we find mafia? Sit around and twiddle our thumbs hoping a cop or tracker hits the jackpot? That's statistically LESS likely to find mafia then is lynching.
honestly a fair point, but if we're going to lynch at basically complete random I'm going to indulge my own suspicions for the time being and not just join the bandwagon.

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Lynch pholtos
(super open to change as the day progresses)
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Voltgloss » 1 year ago

I missed part of brrr's post, and for that I apologize. However, I still disagree with the conclusions he draws.

I missed this:
bbbrrr_it_cold wrote: However, we'd basically lose Day 3 because we'd end up with 5 remaining after that lynch and thus 4 people on Day 4 and, as such, a majority couldn't possibly lynch a mafia. This is assuming we lynch incorrectly each time (and also assuming we lynch day 2 and 3). I suppose it is also assuming my math is right.
I apologize for missing this. I did so because I was focused on this:
bbbrrr_it_cold wrote: For what it's worth, let's look at the worst case scenario:
If we lynch incorrectly until we lose, that puts us at losing at Day 3.
TS|TV|TV|TV|TV|TV|TV|TS|MS|MG
N1|D1|N2|D2|N3|D3|N4

If we don't lynch today but still lynch incorrectly Day 2 and Day 3...we'd lose Day 4.
TS|TV|TV|TV|TV|TV|TV|TS|MS|MG
N1|N2|D2|N3|D3|N4|D4
and because I was also focused on these two conclusions:
bbbrrr_it_cold wrote: So, no, we don't need to lynch today.
bbbrrr_it_cold wrote: If we lynch badly, we're one step closer to losing.
No-lynching is just as bad as a mislynch. Worse, in the lack of data and the fact that a lynch might actually hit mafia. A no-lynch today is guaranteed to bring us "one step closer to losing."

I think brrr may realize this as he's now referred to a two-consecutive-no-lynch idea (a new argument, not presented before) in his last post. Yes, two consecutive no-lynches is better than just one no-lynch, as it gives town's one power role another chance to act. I still don't see it as better than an actual lynch today. brrr, is that what you're advocating? Once you, in your own words, calm down a bit. I understand your being upset due to my missing a portion of your post, and again, I apologize.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Sorel » 1 year ago

God this is such a clusterfuck of reasoning on both sides, honestly.

You have Volt who keeps insisting on lynching someone for reasons, and you have brrr refuting Volt's claims and... I guess insisting on not randomly lynching.

I don't know which one of you is more trustworthy on this matter, so I'll have to abstain.

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No lynch
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Holy » 1 year ago

Sorry guys, I'm trying to do a million things at once and kinda just remembered I'm also playing mafia.

FIRST of all, no I was not "hedging" the role voting, I was leaving my vote open in case later discussion changed my mind.

Second, I do agree with volt that we should lynch someone. I've seen too many games where no one wants to lynch anybody and then we just peter out and die off and the mafia wins easy. If I had to be suspicious of someone it'd be Sturg, because the "oh hey I didn't know how the mafia stuff worked" could be a gambit. But really, I dunno. For now I won't vote, and I'll make sure to check up on this more often.

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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby pholtos » 1 year ago

Ok yeah, I sorta figured you just had a lot going on IRL Holy, given how little you post in the grand battle. (Nudge nudge.)

Personally from what I've seen in mafia games of what I've played, I tend to be more suspicious of the less talkative ones. Shroom and holy have only spoken once so far today, but as I said, I figured Holy wasn't speaking due to real life stuff, so I'm less suspicious of him.

But then again I've never been that great at mafia games so I could be completely wrong in my suspicions.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby bbbrrr_it_cold » 1 year ago

I still disagree with the sentiment that a no lynch means that we aren't getting any info. I feel like we've already gotten a lot of info at this point, and that's ignoring if we want to discuss how people voted on Day 0 in regards to the roles.
But I understand the sentiment. And I'm not particularly advocating for two no-lynches in a row - I did note that, while it technically slowed the mafia, we might not find it to be a good plan. If anything, I'd be fine lynching today if I actually found someone suspicious enough. And, sure, I could pick things that I found slightly suspicious, but nothing really tips it one way or the other for me. And maybe that's on me - I've always been a bit too over-analytical and, after argumentatively pounding someone into the dirt in one of these only to feel horrible about it later

(especially since I was wrong and sort of thought as such at the time)

, I might be a bit too worried about mis-lynching.
Ignoritus wrote: but if we're going to lynch at basically complete random I'm going to indulge my own suspicions for the time being and not just join the bandwagon.

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Lynch pholtos
(super open to change as the day progresses)
Mind my asking your reasoning? Because I was just going back to the day 0 votes and his being the singular vote for Watcher did stick out a bit oddly to me, but it actually made me less suspicious of him after I thought about it for a bit. But if there's reason (especially if I'm missing something), I am all ears.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Tain » 1 year ago

Votes
  • Holy - Voltgloss
  • pholtos - Ignoritus
  • Voltgloss - 8flight
  • No Lynch - Sorel
  • No Vote - Holy, Sturg, Supershroom, bbbrrr_it_cold, pholtos
__________________________________________________
bbbrrr_it_cold wrote: From the initial (sign-up) thread:
Tain wrote: If the day reaches deadline without a majority, there will be no lynch.
Just to be clear, we need a proper majority to lynch, correct?
Sorry about this, those are rules I pasted from another site and read over, I guess I missed that part.

No Lynch just needs to have more votes than anyone else. But in case of a tie, there will be a random lynch; there will never be a random no lynch.

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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby pholtos » 1 year ago

For now, I'm gonna go with my instinct and go with

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Supershroom
Although he could be like Holy and simply be busy IRL, I just feel suspicious about the super quiet ones.
Supershroom wrote:
I'm naturally open to changing my vote.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby bbbrrr_it_cold » 1 year ago

Tain wrote: No Lynch just needs to have more votes than anyone else. But in case of a tie, there will be a random lynch; there will never be a random no lynch.
So not a majority. Just whoever has the most votes, period? I just want to make absolutely sure that we have this clear, since it affects quite a few things, such as the sheer amount of votes needed to lynch, especially if we split votes a bunch.

In any case, I did vote for Voltgloss last night. I will change it right now.

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 No Lynch 
Though I imagine there's a fair chance I'll change it when we get more info (such as shroom coming back or Igno responding or even other things that I can't forsee), I might be away from my computer a bunch over the next few days and don't want a vote I made in anger to be the deciding factor if I can't pop in.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Tain » 1 year ago

Votes
  • Holy - Voltgloss
  • pholtos - Ignoritus
  • Supershroom - pholtos
  • Voltgloss - 8flight
  • No Lynch - bbbrrr_it_cold, Sorel
  • No Vote - Holy, Sturg, Supershroom
Day will end in ~27 hours, 00:00 UTC
______________________________________
bbbrrr_it_cold wrote: So not a majority. Just whoever has the most votes, period?
Yes. If there is one vote for someone, and two votes for no-lynch, then there will be no-lynch.
If there is two votes for someone, and two votes for no-lynch, then the person with two votes will die.

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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 1

Postby Tain » 1 year ago

Game 2 - Night 2

Players
  • 8flight
  • bbbrrr_it_cold
  • Holy
  • Ignoritus
  • pholtos
  • RedMageSusie
  • Sorel
  • Sturg
  • Supershroom
  • Voltgloss
Setup
  • 2 Mafia Goons (1 special)
  • 8 Townies (1 Sheriff, 1 Tracker)
_______________________________________________________________________

Night 2 has begun.

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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 2

Postby Tain » 1 year ago

Game 2 - Day 2

Players
  • 8flight
  • bbbrrr_it_cold
  • Holy
  • Ignoritus
  • pholtos
  • RedMageSusie
  • Sorel
  • Sturg
  • Supershroom
  • Voltgloss
Setup
  • 2 Mafia Goons (1 special)
  • 8 Townies (1 Sheriff, 1 Tracker)
_______________________________________________________________________

Day 2 has begun! Good morning campers!

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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 2

Postby Sorel » 1 year ago

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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 2

Postby pholtos » 1 year ago

So anyone got anything new to add to all the conversations that were happening yesterday?
Supershroom wrote:Still waiting to hear from you again.
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Re: Mafia Game 2 - Day 2

Postby Holy » 1 year ago

Man this game is hella rough for town, we only have one possible information source and they might already be useless cuzza the maf's pick. I think we need to RL today or we're gonna keep going nowhere. I pick Sturg, because I'm slightly more suspicious of him than everyone else.

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vote Sturg


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