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Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

...or in other words: post-whoring
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 2

Postby raekuul » 1 year ago

Whimsical Calamari wrote:
Listen up, you. No matter what the investigation results are, you're going to end up deciding this game - whoever the killer is is going to lie about the sanities and is going to kill one of the three of us between myself, ignoritus, and ameijinMayo, forcing you to choose between them and the survivor. I'm more-or-less painting a giant target on myself and telling the killer "if you want to win you need to kill me next," and they pretty much have to do so since I have already confirmed in-thread that I'm neither the paranoid or the naive cop.

And if you happen to be the killer? Well played.

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby raekuul » 1 year ago

Actually wait, my guilty/inno pair clears Calamari since I either can't get two innos or two guilties. So I move to strike that last sentence of my previous post from the record (not that I can).

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby raekuul » 1 year ago

...I need to use the preview button more. Where it says "either" it should say "both"

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Whimsical Calamari » 1 year ago

IT'S SUMMER SO I HAVE TIME TO REALLY GET INTO THIS. PREPARE FOR WALL OF TEXT INCOMING SOON.
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Whimsical Calamari » 1 year ago

So I compiled the results into a table that I can read (sorry raekuul, but I couldn't rightly make anything useful out with your notation)

Code: Select all

   PLAYER       THEIR DAY 1 READ  DAY 2 READ
   RAEKUUL      G: Ignoritus      I: Ameijin
   VULPINE      G: Ignoritus
   IGNORITUS    I: Calamari       I: raekuul
   AMEIJIN      I: Calamari       G: raekuul
   CALAMARI     I: raekuul        I: Ignoritus
[/size]

Tomorrow's reads will either be:
  • Naive Cop Whimsical Calamari reads Innocent on AmeijinMayo, according to his role.
  • Insane Cop raekuul reads Guilty on Whimsical Calamari, thus claiming AmeijinMayo is Killer through his previous Innocent read.
  • Real Cop Ignoritus reads Guilty on AmeijinMayo, thus claiming AmeijinMayo is Killer
  • Mafia AmeijinMayo gives a logically inconsistent read.
********OR********
  • Real Cop Whimsical Calamari reads Guilty on AmeijinMayo, thus claiming AmeijinMayo is Killer
  • Insane Cop raekuul reads Guilty on Whimsical Calamari, thus claiming AmeijinMayo is Killer through his previous Innocent read.
  • Naive Cop Ignoritus reads Innocent on AmeijinMayo, according to his role.
  • Mafia AmeijinMayo gives a logically inconsistent read.
THE LENGTHY EXPLANATION

ASSUMPTIONS:

I am running on these two assumptions:
  • First, I will assume that all Innocents reported accurately, with no "strategic bluffs". I am hoping this assumption is correct because otherwise y'all suck and I spent time on this massive post for nothing.
  • Second, I am innocent.
REASONING - PLEASE correct me if I'm wrong at any point:
  1. Vulpine only got a chance to get one Guilty. However, everybody else has had at least one Innocent read. Thus, he must be Paranoid, and we can rule out that possibility for the rest of us. In a way, we were lucky he was the first to go. (sorry dude!)
  2. Those who got an Inno read on me must be either Real, Naive, or Killer.
    • Ignoritus has all three of those possibilities, having not shown a Guilty read yet.
    • Ameijin is either Real or Killer, showing one Inno and one Guilty.
    • raekuul, having not read me yet, could get either Innocent or Guilty on me. Therefore, he could be Real, Insane, or Killer. (Not Naive, given his Guilty read on Ignoritus).
  3. I have read two players as Innocent. Therefore I cannot be Insane, as only one player could possibly be read as "Innocent" by the Insane Cop (correct me if I'm wrong). So I am either Real (I read Guilty on AmeijinMayo tonight) or Naive (I read Innocent).
  4. As I cannot be Insane, raekuul is the only one capable of being Insane. I'll go into the implications of this shortly.
  5. From here, we can work out who is killer based on the two possibilities on my read for the next night:
    1. I read Innocent on Ameijin. I am Naive, leaving Ameijin and Ignoritus as either Real or Killer.
      1. If raekuul is Real in this scenario, Ameijin/Ignoritus have to fight over Killer and that's not logically sound. Thus, once again, he must be Insane. But, disregarding those two logical conclusions...
      2. raekuul has two read possibilities:
        • Guilty read on me. This confirms him as Insane, and claims Ameijin is Killer.
        • Innocent read on me. This would make him Real Cop, and mark Ignoritus as Killer. If this is true, then Ameijin must be Real Cop, but that isn't possible as Ameijin read raekuul as Guilty. So Ameijin's previous reads would be logically inconsistent with raekuul's. This could be remedied with the assumption that raekuul is the Killer, except that (in this scenario) I am Naive and Ameijin is Real. This leaves Insane as the only open role, and Ignoritus the only person capable of filling it. BUT, he has already received two Innocents, meaning Ignoritus cannot be Insane.
        Therefore, raekuul's only possible read here is Guilty on me.
      3. Ignoritus has two read possibilities:
        • Guilty read on Ameijin. This corroborates raekuul's reads and confirms he is Real and Ameijin is Killer.
        • Innocent. This conflicts with my third Innocent read and would out him as Killer. The problem is that this would confirm Ameijin as Real Cop, despite the fact that he read raekuul as Guilty. raekuul and Ignoritus can't both be Killer.
        Therefore, Ignoritus' only possible read here is Guilty on Ameijin.
      4. AmeijinMayo has two read possibilities:
        • Guilty read on Ignoritus. This would mean a claim as Insane Cop, targeting me as Killer. This would out him as a liar and thus the Killer.
        • Innocent read on Ignoritus. This would represent a Real Cop claim, targeting raekuul as Killer. However, an Innocent read on Ameijin from Ignoritus would mean Ignoritus is inconsistent and thus the killer (logically inconsistent with a scenario where raekuul is read as Killer by the Real Cop). And a Ameijin-Guilty read from Ignoritus would be a Real counter-claim. This counter-claim would out him as Killer... except that Real Cop Ameijin just read him as Innocent???
      5. Therefore, if I read Ameijin as Innocent,
        raekuul will read me as Guilty, confirming that he is Insane.
        Ignoritus will read Ameijin as Guilty, confirming that he is Real.
        Ameijin can read anything; either one will be logically inconsistent with the rest of the evidence, marking him as Killer along with raekuul's and Ignoritus' readings.
    2. I read Guilty on Ameijin, outing me as Real Cop. This would alone be enough to confirm Ameijin as Killer. But, for consistency's sake, we'll go into the Logical Implications of this...
      1. If I am Real, that means that
        • Ignoritus is either Naive or Killer.
        • raekuul is either Insane or Killer
        • Ameijin can only be Killer (as his only other possible role was Real Cop, given his previous two reads). Thus making Ignoritus Naive and raekuul Insane.
      2. raekuul has two read possibilities:
        • Guilty read on me, once again claiming he is Insane and Ameijin is Killer.
        • Innocent read on me, once again claiming Ignoritus is Killer and counterclaiming Real against me. This counterclaim would be an inconsistency - Two players claim Real Cop, neither reads the other as Guilty? Only possible if both were bluffing on previous claims (don't let me down guys!).
        Therefore, raekuul's only possible read here is Guilty on me.
      3. Ignoritus has two read possibilities:
        • Innocent read on Ameijin. This is the logical possibility (Naive after all).
        • Guilty read on Ameijin. This would be a Real Cop counterclaim, thus causing an inconsistency and outing either me or him as Killer. Yet, both of us had already read Ameijin as Killer, which means at least one Real Cop is bluffing for no good reason and the other is still identifying Ameijin as Killer.
        Therefore, Ignoritus' only possible read here is Innocent on Ameijin.
      4. AmeijinMayo has two read possibilities:
        • Guilty read on Ignoritus, claiming Insane and targeting me as Killer. This would be a problem - if raekuul got his Guilty read on me, it would both be a counterclaim as Insane Cop, marking Ameijin as guilty once more; but if raekuul got an Innocent claim on me, it would suggest he is Real, counterclaiming against my Real role, and calling Ignoritus the Killer. Yet a counterclaim against a Real Cop would suggest that the other Real Cop is either bluffing or the killer. We are assuming that there is no bluffing happening on the part of the Cops. The other possibility is that one of the Real Cop claimants is the Killer and the other is honest - but again, neither is claiming the other Real claimant is guilty, so this cannot possibly be the case.
        • Innocent read on Ignoritus, counterclaiming Real against me and targeting raekuul as Killer. This would open up the same logical can of worms as the previous scenario.
      5. Therefore, if I read Ameijin as Guilty,
        raekuul will read me as Guilty, confirming that he is Insane.
        Ignoritus will read Ameijin as Innocent, confirming that he is Naive.
        Ameijin can read anything; either one will be logically inconsistent with the rest of the evidence, marking him as Killer along with my and raekuul's readings.
Thoughts?
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby No Lynch » 1 year ago

I AM NOT PLAYING IN THIS GAME. I HAVEN'T BEEN IN THIS MAFIA GAME WHY DO I SUPPOSEDLY GET A VOTE.

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Ignoritus » 1 year ago

gg

Ameijin is the killer.

RAEKUUL G: Ignoritus I: Ameijin

AMEIJIN I: Calamari G: raekuul

These results are contradictory and prove one of them is lying. One of them has to be sane and the other insane in order to have guilty and innocent results, yet there is no overlap. There's four different people here, despite the fact that for them to turn up two colors they each would have had to have investigated the killer. Thus one of them is a liar, thus me and Whimsical are cleared of suspicion.

Knowing that we are innocent, we can confirm Ameijin is the killer. Since me and Whimsical are both confirmed innocent, and we both turned up two greens, one of us must be the sane cop. So Ameijin turning innocent on Calamari who's confirmed would mean he couldn't be insane. Thus his results make no sense and must be the product of a lie.

Lynch Ameijin.
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby raekuul » 1 year ago

Refraction wrote:
That guy who's not actually in this game wrote:I AM NOT PLAYING IN THIS GAME. I HAVEN'T BEEN IN THIS MAFIA GAME WHY DO I SUPPOSEDLY GET A VOTE.
*facepalm* I thought you were playing because your name was literally no lynch.
Sorry about that.
And that's going into "What Amused You Today?"

As hesitant as I am to risk a mislynch when delaying one more night will cement our investigations, I'd rather win sooner than later. I was already suspecting Ameijin because of metareasons (not contributing one whit during the Day 2 discussions, plus the absence of a kill night 1). The dissertation by Calamari confirmed the suspicion with in-game reasoning based on the results presented thus far.

And Igno's right - either I'm lying, or Ameijin is. And me lying is inconsistent with the results everyone else has generated. vote AmeijinMayo

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Whimsical Calamari » 1 year ago

ameijinmayo


i swear to god if i'm wrong i will be SO MAD
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Whimsical Calamari » 1 year ago

well i mean it's

3/4 of us voted to lynch the same player so really the last play of the game already happened and we're just waiting for judgment
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby raekuul » 1 year ago

Refraction wrote: 3/4 of us voted to lynch the same player so really the last play of the game already happened and we're just waiting for judgment
Misquoting because ping

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby TheVulpineHero1 » 1 year ago

raekuul wrote: ping
Whimsical Calamari wrote: ping
Ignoritus wrote: ping
AmeijinMayo wrote: ping

So, I'm breaking rules technically because I think this game is most likely dead. Refraction did say they'd be away for a week, but it's been a week and a half; a little profile creeping indicates that they signed in on the 25th, their intended return date, but didn't progress the game (whether that's due to time demands or something, I wouldn't know.)

It's also worth mentioning that, being dead, I pm'd refraction and offered to host the game in their stead (I sent this message on the 18th, not too long after they posted about being away). I can confirm that this message was received and read, since it's in my sent messages rather than my outbox, but I haven't had any word back. This wouldn't really require any major time demands; all they would have to do is pm me the role list and I could have taken it from there.

I say we give it another day or so, then ask the mafia to reveal themselves so the game can be informally wrapped up. I don't believe this will change the outcome of the game at all; if town mislynched tonight and the maf got a kill, it would be one maf versus one town so maf would win; if town's deductions are correct, they lynch maf and win. In other words:

if the maf reveals themselves and is not AmejinMayo, they win. If they are AM, town wins.

I know interest may have waned since this game went on hiatus, but I would like to see it resolved instead of being a niggly loose end.

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Whimsical Calamari » 1 year ago

TheVulpineHero1 wrote:

I know interest may have waned since this game went on hiatus, but I would like to see it resolved instead of being a niggly loose end.

are you kidding i spent five hours on that post there's no way i'm letting that work go to waste

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby TheVulpineHero1 » 1 year ago

Whimsical Calamari wrote:
TheVulpineHero1 wrote:

I know interest may have waned since this game went on hiatus, but I would like to see it resolved instead of being a niggly loose end.

are you kidding i spent five hours on that post there's no way i'm letting that work go to waste

Ngl, that was one of the main reasons why I posted again instead of letting this game fade into obscurity

Also, if we can get a resolution, I'll handle the denouement. I'll also make some super quick userbars while I'm at it.

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Whimsical Calamari » 1 year ago

Refraction wrote:Ahh, I'm away for next week so this game is on hiatus unless someone wants to come in and host it
yo
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Mayrio » 1 year ago

I could substitute for him(the host) if he and you guys are okay with that, I have had hosted many mafia games before and am familiar with this setup.

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Whimsical Calamari » 1 year ago

literally all that needs to happen is someone to say "Ameijin Is/Isn't Mafia" and we're done
though i would like to see refraction's thoughts on how the game played out
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby ano0maly » 1 year ago

Whimsical Calamari wrote:literally all that needs to happen is someone to say "Ameijin Is/Isn't Mafia" and we're done
though i would like to see refraction's thoughts on how the game played out
Maybe just have Ameijin personally reveal the role so the game can conclude?
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby TheVulpineHero1 » 1 year ago

Pretty much. I've made up the userbars for whenever it gets resolved.
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby AmeijinMayo » 1 year ago

ano0maly wrote:
Whimsical Calamari wrote:literally all that needs to happen is someone to say "Ameijin Is/Isn't Mafia" and we're done
though i would like to see refraction's thoughts on how the game played out
Maybe just have Ameijin personally reveal the role so the game can conclude?
Good Idea! I was hesitant if that'd be alright to just do. But at this point, I'm sure everyone would like to wrap this up and call it a night with this Mafia game. I am the Mafia goon and you guys came to the proper conclusion. To be honest, it was kinda rough lying through my teeth with my role being what it was, but it was an interesting first experience. I was able to learn a lot from this game and I hope that this game wasn't too poor of an experience with me being the mafia goon. Good job on figuring it out though, guys.

Thanks for the game. Also, condolences to VulpineHero for being the first kill, no hard feelings.
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Ignoritus » 1 year ago

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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby TheVulpineHero1 » 1 year ago

AmeijinMayo wrote:
ano0maly wrote:
Whimsical Calamari wrote:literally all that needs to happen is someone to say "Ameijin Is/Isn't Mafia" and we're done
though i would like to see refraction's thoughts on how the game played out
Maybe just have Ameijin personally reveal the role so the game can conclude?
Good Idea! I was hesitant if that'd be alright to just do. But at this point, I'm sure everyone would like to wrap this up and call it a night with this Mafia game. I am the Mafia goon and you guys came to the proper conclusion. To be honest, it was kinda rough lying through my teeth with my role being what it was, but it was an interesting first experience. I was able to learn a lot from this game and I hope that this game wasn't too poor of an experience with me being the mafia goon. Good job on figuring it out though, guys.

Thanks for the game. Also, condolences to VulpineHero for being the first kill, no hard feelings.
Thank you for reveal!

By the way, when you say condolences for the first kill... I remember Calimari saying something to the effect of "we were lucky Vulp was first to get killed". That isn't strictly true -- you were more lucky that I was paranoid. I was aiming to get killed first day, because a) the game seemed really slow and I didn't want to pay attention and b) if I could be certain to draw a maf attack, I could ensure my team got three useful reports and not waste them on somebody who died. Me asking whether cops got info on a guy who got killed that night was as heavy a hint as I could give to town not to waste investigations on somebody who was likely to get taken down. I then made sure to keep posting (high profile, draw attention to myself) and cast suspicion on the first day in the hopes that it would make maf nervous enough to pick me off. It all worked out. Next post I'll put up some userbars.
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby TheVulpineHero1 » 1 year ago

Userbars!
Whimsical Calamari wrote:ping
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TheVulpineHero1 wrote: pinging myself for sake of form
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raekuul wrote:ping
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Ignoritus wrote:ping
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AmeijinMayo wrote: ping
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refraction wrote:Absence
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Re: Dethy Classic Mafia Day 3

Postby Whimsical Calamari » 1 year ago

TheVulpineHero1 wrote: Image
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