Cardflip II Day V - The Game Resumes

[raekuul]

We have a 20% chance of lynching the godfather if we lynch En Gardevoir
We have a 50% chance of lynching a mafia role if we lynch one of Bedlam, Zeldamaster12, Mikkofier, or Holy

I'm going to vote Zeldamaster12, as the doctor was surprised when Pholtos claimed green.

[Mikkofier]

We have a 20% chance of lynching the godfather if we lynch En Gardevoir
We have a 50% chance of lynching a mafia role if we lynch one of Bedlam, Zeldamaster12, Mikkofier, or Holy

Point. Though I'm pretty sure Zeldamaster isn't mafia due to being a replacement and I know I'm not mafia, so it's a coin flip between Bedlam and Holy...

I'm going with Holy.

[bbbrrr_it_cold]

Alright. I lieu of doing anything else, I'm just going to list the four people who we could consider voting for today and my reasons for being suspicious or not suspicious of them.

1) Zeldamaster12 is the least suspicious out of all of these four to me because no one has ever given a GOOD reason to be suspicious of him or Pholtos. Again, I don't buy the argument of Pholtos leaving the game being indicative of mafia. In fact, like I said, I don't understand how that's supposed to be indicative of mafia. The only other argument we've seen was

the doctor was surprised when Pholtos claimed green.

which is just silly because the doctor shouldn't have been surprised at all. Taken from the skype logs posted by raekuul:

[2/17/2016 19:42:06] 21319031232transcend: the RNG target for today is pholtos
[2/17/2016 19:42:10] pholtos: D:
[2/17/2016 19:42:11] ParmaJon(Village Idiot): Oh
[2/17/2016 19:42:14] ParmaJon(Village Idiot): Hmm
[2/17/2016 19:42:37] Quagsire "cold guy": Not Pholtos...he's my favorite maybe I don't know.
[2/17/2016 19:43:01] 1 cup cold boiled wolfy: pholtos could be trying to get us to lynch mikko
[2/17/2016 19:43:03] 1 cup cold boiled wolfy: but idk
[2/17/2016 19:43:19] ParmaJon(Village Idiot): I feel like pholtos is trustworthy, but ive never mafia with him
[2/17/2016 19:50:43] ParmaJon(Village Idiot): 2hours
[2/17/2016 19:59:10] pholtos: Do you really think I'm good enough to somehow manipulate people, I'm too honest for that, I'm also terrible at giving strong opinions unless people know I'm trustworthy in game. :/
[2/17/2016 19:59:42] pholtos: At this point I'd think choosing a person would be better than just letting rng decide, though
[2/17/2016 19:59:50] ParmaJon(Village Idiot): Yea

I mean, first of all, that's the doctor right there saying he thought Pholtos was trustworthy. And I didn't read his last statement in the other log you posted

[2/20/2016 11:29:48 AM] ParmaJon(Village Idiot): ahh shit, pholtos claimed green

to be indicative of surprise. I actually thought it might be that Parma was sad he'd claimed and made himself a(nother) obvious target.
And, to top it off, for someone who might be mafia, you'd think he would have voted to save himself round 1 or even this round. Heck, you'd think he'd vote this round period if he were mafia - if not to save himself then to show solidarity with the mafia brethren in trying to take down someone else. But maybe that last part is just me overthinking things.


2) Holy could be mafia but, if I'm honest, I don't buy that right now. The main thing is this:

[2/21/2016 5:26:10 PM] Pokota: and the bandwagon vote on Piter Lauchy was the lynch snipe

A lynch snipe seems inherently suspicious until you look at it in context. Holy had the option to snipe either Piter Launchy or myself. I think just those colors show that, if Holy was mafia, the lynch was an odd choice. And then the automatic response is that sniping me would be suspicious...but then Holy could have not voted and let RNGesus decide, giving a chance to lose a green or the guy who claimed veteran. It seems like a really bad call for a mafia member to not jump on the chance to take out the veteran (or really any blue) in a situation like this, either through a direct vote or inactivity.


3) Bedlam...is the one who I honestly have very little to say about. I guess here I'll note that, since we know at least two of these four are mafia, being on the bottom of this list would imply mafia. Again, I don't have much to say one way or the other - Bedlam's defenses have been pretty standard and there isn't much super suspicious about that in and of itself.


4) Mikkofier
Where do we even begin?
Let's start with this - Mikko's defense on day one was that defending himself was suspicious, so he wasn't going to bother. Yes, we ended up deciding not to vote for him. But let's look at it in a different perspective. We decided killing Pika was too obvious, that no one would be that obvious. And, really, that could be both the perfect defense and the worst defense. On the one hand, we're basically saying it was so obvious he'd be stupid to. But if we're saying that and deciding against him for it, that means that we're choosing to not vote for him because he's suspicious. That means it could be a case where he knew it was so obvious that he wouldn't be a suspect because we would think he wouldn't be that dumb.
But let's ignore that for a moment and look at Mikko's votes.
Day one, Mikko didn't vote. All he did was mount his (already discussed) defense.
Day two, Mikko, being the rng target, started the votes by voting raekuul and saying this:

Very adamant about getting me lynched by reasoning that I was out for revenge from the last game (implying not only mafia, but also gibbering idiocy), but cleverly didn't drive it further when it became apparent that it didn't gain momentum, then jumped on the MECHDRAGON777 bandwagon.

Now, I don't know about anyone else, but I'd think if you were "very adamant" about something, you'd throw down a vote. When raekuul stepped in to defend himself (and subsequently claimed sheriff), Mikko switched to his vote to me to give raekuul the benefit of the doubt. But the really interesting thing here is, after raekuul brought the message I sent him to light, what was Mikko's response? Oh, yes, voting for raekuul again, saying:

Know what? Screw benefit of doubt

Why? No, seriously, why? This is a legitimate question I have. Why, when he came out with a person drawing votes off of himself, would you go back to voting for him?
Day three was where no one voted and day four is now. And what have his votes been? First, En Gardevoir - the one person that we've been agreeing that we shouldn't vote for. Once it was pointed out (again) that that was a bad choice, it was changed to Holy. And this is where I'd like to point out how the votes currently stand.


Mikkofier has two votes - myself and En Gardevoir
Zeldamaster12 has two votes - Holy and raekuul
Holy has two votes - Bedlam and Mikko (the two people I find most suspicious...huh, now that I've typed it out, it seems a touch too perfect).
And Zeldamaster12 has not voted.

I'm just going to leave this here for discussion, I guess. Right now, I don't know what more information I could bring forward, what more points I could explain, or how much more I could stress that WE NEED TO BE CERTAIN OF OUR VOTE TODAY! So instead, I'm just going to go and eat lunch.

[raekuul]

Very adamant about getting me lynched by reasoning that I was out for revenge from the last game (implying not only mafia, but also gibbering idiocy), but cleverly didn't drive it further when it became apparent that it didn't gain momentum, then jumped on the MECHDRAGON777 bandwagon.

Now, I don't know about anyone else, but I'd think if you were "very adamant" about something, you'd throw down a vote.

Actually, he's saying I was very adamant about pushing for his lynch on Day One on the grounds that he was out for revenge from the last game. Which, for a day one random voting stage argument is just as cromulent as "he wears green socks on Tuesdays."

[raekuul]

Aaand now that I read what you said we just said the same thing twice.

[Holy]

2) Holy could be mafia but, if I'm honest, I don't buy that right now. The main thing is this:

[2/21/2016 5:26:10 PM] Pokota: and the bandwagon vote on Piter Lauchy was the lynch snipe

A lynch snipe seems inherently suspicious until you look at it in context. Holy had the option to snipe either Piter Launchy or myself. I think just those colors show that, if Holy was mafia, the lynch was an odd choice. And then the automatic response is that sniping me would be suspicious...but then Holy could have not voted and let RNGesus decide, giving a chance to lose a green or the guy who claimed veteran. It seems like a really bad call for a mafia member to not jump on the chance to take out the veteran (or really any blue) in a situation like this, either through a direct vote or inactivity.

Yeah, I voted for Piter because I thought you and raekuul were pretty much in the clear at that point and the current vote still had a chance of lynching you. Plus I was suspicious of him, and I still think there's a good chance he was the godfather.

I think the arguments against Mikkofier make sense. I still suspect Zeldamaster over Bedlam, but I'm willing to vote Mikkofier today. I'm not sure if I should actually switch my vote over yet cuz I know we wanna be really sure and I don't want anyone getting instantly lynched.

[Mikkofier]

One of the benefits of acting flippantly while being a towney is that the mafia won't target you, because you're a scapegoat for them. All you need to do is vote correctly.
The reason I changed to raekuul that one time is due to not-sure-who-to-believe syndrome. My bad.
En Gardevoir I was suspicious of due to acting kind of like how I acted that one (and, so far, only) time as mafia in a previous game: Generic statements and jumping on bandwagons (especially the little one you just started against me, which I reasoned they would go for if they were GF, due to knowing that I'm not maf).
Then I recalled something along the lines of "we must not mislynch or we will lose" and switched to Holy, based mostly on gut-feeling more than anything.
Now, having read your handy-dandy post up there with the evidence you've gleaned, I've decided to be extra sure and go for Bedlam, in defiance of gambler's fallacy or whatever it's called.

But you're probably going to read this flip-flopping as evidence of mafiahood and have me lynched anyway. Maybe I'll show up as miller and give you all a nice false sense of accomplishment before the mafia murder you all during the night. In either case, I'll just renew my offer to tell you, after this is over:

I told you so.

[Zeldamaster12]

yeah, see ya Mikkofier

[Zeldamaster12]

Mikkofier changed his vote to Bedlam

[Mikkofier]

That's two votes for Zeldamaster.
Oh boy, getting lynched again! Did you know, in my first Mafia game here I was lynched because I couldn't adequately defend myself and that led to town losing? It's like a full circle!

yeah, see ya Mikkofier

Bye! Better luck next time!

[Mikkofier]

That's two votes for Zeldamaster.
Oh boy, getting lynched again! Did you know, in my first Mafia game here I was lynched because I couldn't adequately defend myself and that led to town losing? It's like a full circle!

Town won in Mafia one lol.

I was referring to Blueberry Cannoli Crunch Mafia.

[quote="Zeldamaster12"
Mikkofier has three votes - bbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr and En Gardevoir, Zeldamaster12
Zeldamaster12 has three votes - Holy and raekuul,
Holy has one vote - Bedlam,
Bedlam has one vote - Mikkofier

24 hours until day ends.

There's an error there.

[bbbrrr_it_cold]

In either case, I'll just renew my offer to tell you, after this is over:

I told you so.

Meh. I'm not going to be horribly surprised if you come up green. I'm not going to be surprised at all if the town loses. We've made quite a few really bad mistakes, least of which being still having not flipped a single red for all our attempts.
I'd like to win. I'm going to try to win. But if we don't, it won't be a surprise to me in the slightest.

I mean, I'm not saying I know for a fact that you're mafia. I'm saying that I find you the most suspicious and since I need to vote (since I had voted prior and can't unvote - an action I now regret greatly), it makes sense for me to vote for the person I find most suspicious. I mean, you yourself admitted that, if you are a townie, you've made yourself a mafia scapegoat. Sure, that makes you safe from them, but it doesn't make you safe from THE OTHER HALF OF THE GAME and you should really stop acting as though we have no reason for it. Heck, even looking back at the prior mafia game you linked (and knowing what happened in cardflip 1), this wouldn't be the first time where your tactic has backfired and you've made yourself practically indefensible. Yeah, the situations in all of these instances haven't been great - but then neither have you. I'm not saying you have only yourself to blame for it, but I am saying that you haven't exactly made it easy for people to trust you. Because, at this point, it is just that.

There are five people who could possibly be mafia (one of whom can only be the Godfather) and none of them are going to say they are. Why would they? So that means that this is all a matter of trust. Do I trust Bedlam's claim of not getting a role PM? Honestly, not in the slightest. In fact, I've been tempted to switch my vote (back) to Bedlam many times (ESPECIALLY because Bedlam has gone back to being very quiet). Do I trust Holy's claim? Zeldamaster12's? Well, at least a bit more - both have DONE ACTIONS that strike me as non-mafia actions. And, sure, they could have been attempting to make themselves look less like mafia with those specific actions, but I don't buy that argument (at least on those specific actions) and I've already explained why. And En Gardevoir? We should flip some reds before we even worry about that one.

At the end of the day, which is in less than five hours, someone has to be lynched. On an in-game level, I want to vote for the person I find most suspicious.
On a meta level though?

I'm voting for the person who is actively harming my enjoyment of the game by acting incredibly immature about this whole thing. I get it - you want to live no matter what your role is. And I don't blame you for that. But I totally blame you for being a jerk about it.

[Mikkofier]

I wish to sincerely apologize for my behavior. I didn't mean to genuinely act like a jerk and should've realized that Mafia is not the venue for flippant behavior such as what I have done. Thank you for pointing this out. If it is any consolation, I won't be taking part in Mafia for some time after this. I'm sorry for ruining the game for everyone

[Holy]

Blurrrrrrrrg...now I'm thinking Mikkofier is town? I kinda wanna go Bedlam now??

[bbbrrr_it_cold]

Hey, if we wanna go Bedlam, I'm not gonna argue. As I said, I don't really buy their claim.

@ Mikko:

Sorry if I came off a bit harsh with what I said - I don't know if you're harming anyone else's experience. This is my first forum mafia experience period (I've only ever played mafia in real life prior) and I don't know if this whole volatility is normal. But yeah, some of your posts did come off somewhat jerkish. That doesn't mean I want you gone if you weren't intentionally doing that and don't plan on doing it any more.
Part of this comes from a guy I used to play games with who was an absolute horrible jerk about them, whether winning or losing, and I think some of your last posts just reminded me of him (though they were still better - unless you too play Egyptian Rat Slap/Screw with bulky rings on to discourage people from slapping. I may have overreacted in that manner - I don't want to force anyone out, especially if I'm the only one who is having a problem.
I may sit out the next round of mafia as well just to observe, since part of me wonders if I should have perhaps watched at least one more round before trying to play. I know the game, sure, but I certainly don't know the meta.

[Holy]

In case I die tonight for some reason, lemme say this:
IF we don't game over tonight, that means we lynched the godfather at some point. That means we know who the mafia are: bedlam and zeldamaster. Cuz en gardevoir can't be the godfather. I think my logic's right on that.

[jayScribble]

Is the game dead like me?

[Gardenolva]

Is the game dead like me?

More likely.

[underFlo]

hi

[Zeldamaster12]

hi spinda

[bbbrrr_it_cold]

Good news 1) The mafia apparently are not super great. They killed someone who we technically could have suspected. (Though, in all honesty, if En Garde was Godfather, it wouldn't have mattered because we'd have lost.
Good news 2) We're assured to flip a red - and we have 2/3 to flip an actual mafia member.

Bad news 1) If we hit the miller, we're screwed.
Bad news 2) Especially considering we've now two replacements in here, leads are difficult as people can't exactly defend the actions of prior people in their role.
Bad news 3) Even if I was right about Pholtos being town, it is impossible for both Zeldamaster12 and Spinda to BOTH be town. So at least one person who left the game was mafia, if not both.

Observations - none. I'm just gonna keep my mouth shut for a while.

[raekuul]

Hey, 8flight, try using the list bbcode. Makes quoting you easier.

1. Raekuul
2. Pholtos(Zeldamaster12)
3. Bedlam(Spinda)
4. bbbrrr_it_cold
5. Holy
6. Wolftotl
7. En Gardevoir
8. Piter Lauchy
9. Telamon
10. Mikkofier
11. Pikabread
12. Parmajon
13. anomaly
14. Jayscribble
15. MECHDRAGON777

Ping

Ping

Ping

Alright, let's do this. Here's the question I have for you three:
How do you think the other two people under the gun will vote?

[underFlo]

So, from what I can gather you and bbrrr are p much confirmed human, so if I'm not mistaken both of them should be Mafia. As such, it opens the question of whether they'd lynch me to get close to a majority on me or have one of them lynch the other to avert suspicion if they both team up. If I had to guess I'd say that one of them is gonna lynch me and the other's gonna lynch the other player so they'd make themselves harder to read.

As for which of them is gonna do what I don't really know their playstyle enough to tell for certain and by me mentioning that they'll probably lynch differently, but if I had to specify I'd say that Holy would lynch me since they expressed distrust for my slot more than ZM from what it feels like to me, so it'd be easier to justify that from her perspective.

[underFlo]

So, is this dead?

[pholtos]

It's probably not my place to say but I feel as though this game has essentially deteriorated and should probably just end.